Policy-Induced Death Spirals - The PASSHE Story - Part 4

Possible Faculty Layoffs

 
As stated in my July 14, 2014 blog post entitled “Policy-Induced Death Spirals - The PASSHE Story:
 
“In the four month period between August and December of 2013, five of 14 PASSHE universities— Clarion,¹ Edinboro,² Mansfield,³ East Stroudsburg⁴ and Slippery Rock⁵—publicly declared financial distress, ballooning deficits and layoffs of tenured faculty.” 
 
On July 30, 2014, an article appeared in the Post-Gazette⁶ with the following headline: “Notices of possible faculty layoffs go out at five of Pa’s 14 state-owned universities.” The following five PASSHE universities were identified in that article: Clarion, Edinboro, Cheyney, East Stroudsburg and Mansfield.
 
This latest article may be confusing to some people because, at first glance, it may seem like “old news.” But it is not old news; it is an extension of a grim and unnecessarily tragic story that will linger on the campuses and in the media in the months and years ahead.

Other PASSHE universities, beyond the six that have so far done so, will also announce faculty layoffs as each of the eight remaining universities face their ultimate preordained fate—which is mission failure and bankruptcy in the near term.  But in fairness to the leaders on the fourteen individual PASSHE campuses, the absolute truth of their situation isn't known or appreciated: 
 

“The 14 PASSHE Universities are Trapped in a Death Spiral Not of Their Own Making”

 
There is a big difference between human events and the newspaper stories about them; even when the facts are accurate, the underlying reasons for those facts are rarely understood or reported.
 
For example, a comparison between the news stories from last year and this year reveals important facts, namely that four of the five universities—Clarion, Edinboro, Mansfield and East Stroudsburg —were included in “potential faculty layoff stories” both years while for 2014, Cheyney replaced Slippery Rock as the fifth PASSHE university on that unfortunate list.
 
As well, other recent news stories have cited the fact that West Chester University is doing so well in terms of its enrollments and finances that its backers are proposing that it—and possibly a few other PASSHE universities with strong finances and enrollments over 7,000 students—become “state-related.”
 
One wonders, of course, how it is possible that four of the fourteen PASSHE universities could be facing potential faculty layoffs two years in a row—an obvious symptom of severe financial distress—while one or more PASSHE universities are contemplating joining the ranks of the “state-related” and largely independent Pennsylvania institutions that include Penn State, Pitt, Temple and Lincoln Universities.  One way to make sense of this obvious conundrum is to think of it in terms of “punctuated equilibrium.” 
 

Equilibrium

Merriam-Webster defines “equilibrium” as “a state of balance between opposing forces.”  Such equilibrium can be either static or dynamic.  For example, an airplane sitting on a runway is in static equilibrium because the downward force of gravity on the plane (its weight) is exactly counterbalanced by the equal and opposite “normal” force of the runway pushing upward on the plane.  That very same airplane flying level at 35,000 feet and 600 miles per hour is in dynamic equilibrium in the sense that the downward weight of the plane is now counterbalanced, not by the runway, but by the upward lift on the plane provided by its airfoil wings.
 
Equilibrium can also be stable or unstable.  A marble in the bottom of a parabolic shaped well is in stable equilibrium at the bottom of the well.  A small push to one side or the other allows the marble to return to its original equilibrium spot at the bottom of the well.  But a marble will balance—at least temporarily—at the top of an inverted parabolic well, with the upward and downward forces totally balanced.  But in that case, the slightest push to one side or the other causes the marble to cascade rapidly away from its equilibrium spot. 
 

Punctuated Equilibrium

According to Merriam-Webster, “punctuated equilibrium” is characterized by “long periods of stability with short periods of rapid change.” This concept is now familiar from many different branches of both the physical and social sciences.  For example, in geology, tectonic plates and volcanos can exist for eons in quiet states of calm equilibrium, and then suddenly burst out into violent earthquakes or eruptions.
 
In evolutionary biology, the concept of punctuated equilibrium helps paleontologists understand the fossil record which empirically suggests very strongly that species exhibit extremely long records of “stasis,” interrupted by extremely brief periods of “rapid change.”
 
In the social sciences, punctuated equilibrium also helps to understand how changes in public policy can come about.⁷ As with the physical science examples just cited, the evidence suggests that social systems also tend to have long periods of stasis, punctuated by sudden shifts in policy.  This in turn suggests a similarity between the “stickiness” of tectonic plates that causes an accumulation of pent-up energy, and the social stickiness of organizations that, benefitting from the status quo, resist any loss of power and perks until that pent up energy becomes great enough to create a new status quo.
 
Next week we will continue to show how the obvious contradiction in the simultaneous existence of two polar opposites can be possible—namely how: a) some PASSHE universities can be declaring financial distress; while b) other PASSHE universities are touting financial success.  As we will see, the apparent contradiction, yet to be clarified by the media, can be readily explained via the concept of punctuated equilibrium.⁸ 
 
¹ http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/08/clarion_university_restructuri.html.  Penn Live, August 16, 2013.
² http://www.post-gazette.com/education/2013/09/11/Edinboro-University-plans-faculty-program-cuts/stories/201309110152. post-gazette.com, September 11, 2013.
³ http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2013/09/mansfield_university_becomes_t.html. Penn Live, September 26, 2013.
⁴ http://www.post-gazette.com/news/education/2013/10/30/East-Stroudsburg-is-fourth-state-owned-Pennsylvania-university-to-announce-cuts/stories/201310300139. post-gazette.com, October 30, 2013.
⁵ https://www.keepandshare.com/doc/6756902/tribune-review-december-24-2013-slippery-rock-university-facing-10-million-deficit-possible-l. Tribune-Review, December 24, 2013.
⁶ http://www.post-gazette.com/news/education/2014/07/30/Notices-of-possible-faculty-layoffs-go-out-at-five-of-Pa-s-14-state-owned-universities/stories/201407300181.
⁷ Baumgartner, Frank and Bryan D. Jones (1993). Agendas and Instability in American Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
⁸ This note will acknowledge and thank a faithful reader of this blog for suggesting this concept.