Monday, November 17, 2014

What's the point of elections if everything is already decided - Part 3

Game Theory with Three Players - On the State Level

Recall from previous Blog posts that the political and electoral processes in America may be understood in terms of game theory with the following three players: 1) the Electorate (E); 2) the Democratic Party (D); and 3) the Republican Party (R).  It is understood that each player may choose to cooperate with, or compete against, one or both of the other two players. 
 
Also recall that in a game with three players, there are three different ways to play “Two against One.”  1) E + D against R; 2) E + R against D; and 3) D + R against E.
 
A Brief History of Pennsylvania Governors

For 89 years—from 1879 to 1968—the Pennsylvania Constitution limited the State’s elected governors to just one 4-year term of office.  The Constitution was changed in 1968 and enabled governors to be reelected to a second term.
 
The first election for Pennsylvania governor under this new provision took place on November 3, 1970. Milton Shapp was the first elected governor who was eligible to succeed himself, as the following list of Political Affiliations, Governors, Years in Office, and “Two against One” type shows:
 
(D) Milton Shapp: 1971-1979 [E+D against R]
(R) Richard Thornburgh: 1979-1987 [E+R against D]
(D) Robert P. Casey: 1987-1995 [E+D against R]
(R)Tom Ridge/Mark Schweiker: 1995-2003¹ [E+R against D]
(D) Ed Rendell: 2003-2011 [E+D against R]
(R) Tom Corbett: 2011-2015 [E+R against D]
(D) Tom Wolf: 2015 - ? [E+D against R]

The entries in the above list reveal several interesting historical patterns:
1)      Five of six governors who were eligible to succeed themselves since1968 have done so;
2)      The Electorate has regularly alternated between support for Democrats and Republicans;
3)      Democratic governor terms have always been followed by Republican governor terms; and
4)      Republican governor terms have always been followed by Democratic governor terms.
 
D + R against E - On the State Level

Example 1 - “Lawmakers in Pa. Take An 18% Raise.  They Also Approved Raises For Other State Officials Ranging up to 27%.  Judges Are To Benefit, Too.  Gov. Ridge Was Expected To Sign The Measure.”

The quoted statement above was the headline of a Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper article² published on October 18, 1995 shortly after both the State Senate and State House of Representatives voted to give themselves and other state officials large one-time raises that would be adjusted upward each year thereafter by a percentage equal to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for that year.
 
According to that Inquirer article:

“The Senate put up the politically sensitive votes first in midafternoon, passing the pay-raise bill by a 26-22 vote, with 15 of 27 Republicans and 11 of 21 Democrats voting yes.”
 
“The House followed three hours later, voting 104-91, with 56 of 102 Republicans and 48 of 100 Democrats voting yes.”
 
“Also as happened the last time, a nonseverability provision was inserted, perhaps as an incentive to judges, requiring that if one portion of the bill is knocked down by the courts, the entire bill becomes void.”
 
This last “Special Provision” was apparently inserted into the bill to guarantee that if the courts were to rule against the raises for lawmakers, the judges wouldn’t get their raises either.
 
Two days later, on October 20, 1995, Gov. Ridge signed the bill into law as reported in another Philadelphia Inquirer article³ that carried the following headline: “Ridge Signs Legislative Pay-raise Bill.”
  
Note that the Republican controlled Senate and House of Representatives passed the 1995 pay-raise bill with Democratic support, and that the bill was signed into law by a Republican Governor.
 
Example 2 - “50% increase; less for workers, teachers - Legislators raise own pensions

The above quoted statement was the headline in a May 9, 2001 Post-Gazette article⁴ describing a near-unanimous bipartisan rush to pass a bill containing the following provisions:
·         A 50% increase in the pensions for 250 lawmakers;
·         A 25% increase in the pensions for 109,000 state employees;
·         A 25% increase in the pensions for 234,000 public school teachers.

According to the article:
“The bill passed the House 176-23, without a word of opposition and no debate. It took five minutes to approve, then ship to the state Senate for consideration. An hour later, the Senate approved the bill, 41-8, without discussion, and sent it to the governor's desk for his signature.”
 
According to a PRNewswire article⁵ Gov. Ridge signed the bill into law on May 17, 2001.
 
Note that in the case of the 2001 pension increases for lawmakers & other state employees, Republican and Democratic lawmakers voted 87% to 13% to increase their own pensions by 50%, while increasing the pensions of 343,000 other state employees by 25%.  The bill was signed by a Republican governor.
 
If one wonders how lawmakers can get away with the obvious conflicts of interest involved in voting raises and pension increases for themselves—in the face of the Pennsylvania Ethics Act which ostensibly prohibits “conflicts of interest” by elected officials—it happens that the lawmakers took care of that little problem way back in 1978 by including in the Ethics Act not the Merriam-Webster definition of a conflict of interest, but a weak and narrow definition of the term that allows giving raises to themselves.  For the details of that story, see my March 8, 2013 Harrisburg-Patriot op-ed on that subject.⁶
 
To be continued.     
 
¹ Tom Ridge was elected to two terms as Pennsylvania governor but his second term was cut short 24 days after 9/11 when President George W. Bush appointed him to be the first Assistant to the President for Homeland Security (2001-2003), and later the first Secretary of Homeland Security (2003-2005). On October 5, 2001, Tom Ridge resigned to go to Washington and his Lieutenant Governor Mark Schweiker was sworn in as governor to serve out the balance of Tom Ridge’s second term.
² https://www.keepandshare.com/doc/7407277/inquirer-october-18-1995-lawmakers-in-pa-take-an-18-raise-pdf-265k.
³ https://www.keepandshare.com/doc/7407278/inquirer-october-20-1995-ridge-signs-legislative-pay-raise-bill-pdf-243k.
https://www.keepandshare.com/doc/7407279/post-gazette-may-9-2001-50-increase-less-for-workers-teachers-pdf-94k.
https://www.keepandshare.com/doc/7407280/prnewswire-may-17-2001-pennsylvania-gov-ridge-signs-public-employee-retirement-package-pdf.
https://www.keepandshare.com/doc/6732130/harrisburg-patriot-op-ed-angelo-armenti-jr-march-8-2013-pdf-157k.

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